The Game of Trades

As the trade deal talks between US and China go out of order, the global spotlight has, once again, been trained on the possibly inescapable trade war between the two economic giants—US and China, who account to almost about 40 per cent of world’s GDP. The trade war between the two countries gained a drastic momentum when US President Donald Trump announced increased import tariffs of 25 per cent on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, blaming reluctance of China towards forging a balanced trade deal.

Interestingly, Sir Isaac Newton, in his third law of motion, said, “every action has an equal and opposite reaction.” So, the series of foisting tariffs did not end up with US tariffs on Chinese goods. Rather it invited retaliatory tariffs with China imposing increased tariffs on $60 billion worth of US imports. As two are refusing to take one-step back, precisely both the countries are handling it as the matter of prestige.

In the US, Presidential elections are due in next year. For Donald Trump, a lot is on stake. Winning over China and nailing a balanced trade deal with it can help him peerlessly in the next Presidential elections. Unlike, for China, though it may not be a matter of elections but certainly a matter of its global prestige. But, their matter of prestige is, indeed, a pain in the neck for the rest of the world.

The latest statements coming from President Trump are, conspicuously, pointing towards an ensuing formidable situation in terms of global trade. It is worth mentioning that the trade battle between the two countries set off last year when Trump inflicted Chinese steel and aluminium imports with heavy tariffs, inviting quick and retaliatory tariffs from China as well. Henceforth, the trade situations became grave and grave with each passing day, allowing counter statements from both sides and, thereon perhaps, lingers the noose of an unwanted trade war situation over the world economy.

Trump appears to, assertively, rationalize his tariffs by putting forward the concerns of American businessmen, saying the US is, painfully, bearing a yearly loss of a whopping $375 billion owing to Chinese imports, hence China must compensate that loss. And, to circumvent the current daunting trade situations, China must either initiate and show conciliatory overture by removing heavy duties from US imports or expect further tariffs on its goods being exported to US.

In this crux for global trade, India enjoys no exception. In essence, the sparks emanating from the trade battle between the two economic giant may hurt Indian interests too— in one way or another. The two sides failing to figure out a concrete solution to the ongoing perturbing logjam may cause a significant rise of interest rates in the USA, followed by the outflow of institutional investors from India, leaving behind a hobbled share market.

If those predicaments are anything to go by, the most ardent allies of USA, especially European Union, may follow the same stance of conservatism in the days to come, as the US seems to tread on today. And, if the EU embarks to tread on the same trajectory, Indian exports to Europe may suffer adversely. In addition, a global recession can be the eventual outcome if these trade deadlocks remain persistent any longer, resulting in high crude oil prices, and thus, stoking higher inflation.

Although, in order to cease a few favourable opportunities in the persisting trade impasse, India handed China a list of about 380 products that China can import from India, but China, if it does, will probably import only those products which it may not get from the USA such as medicines, agro products like Soyabean.

Trump also tried to weigh India in the same scale as he assesses China, by foisting heavy import tariffs on Indian steel and aluminium, an unnecessary move that saw an equal, opposite and, at the same time, an appropriate response from India.

As the ongoing US-China trade scenarios are taking a drastic turn with each passing day and bode ill for near future trade prospects, India, in this backdrop, must buckle down and should not delay in taking some immediate and infallible steps to take it all in its stride.

The Dark Clouds of War

Perhaps, the dark clouds have started gathering over the Gulf region as each passing day unfolds new formidable developments. The world superpower USA and a regional but major power Iran seem to be on the brink of ‘unwillingly escapable’ confrontation. In the wake of this daunting global uncertainty, none of the two appears to be willing to take a step back to avert this dogged predicament.

The obvious cause of ongoing instability can be traced back to the 2015’s Trump's reprehensible decision of pulling out of Iran Nuclear Deal sealed by his predecessor Barack Obama. Henceforth, both the countries have unsurprisingly remained adamant towards a new deal where on one side, Trump wants a new deal with more stringent restrictions, on the other side, Tehran wants Donald Trump to show some respect towards the existing one (JCPOA). And significantly, that is the actual bone of contention behind the baffled and fragile relations between the two countries.

May 2019 has seen the most ups and downs in the long series of rising middle east tensions, with the latest being the deployment of 1500 extra troops to the region by US President. Trump, recently, even took it to Twitter to intimidate Iran of deadly consequences that may follow Iran’s unrequired action against US and its allies. The sharp repercussion of Trump followed the attack on four oil tankers at the coast of UAE, publicly claimed by Iran backed rebels of Yemen. Another regional power Saudi Arabia, too, said that it is not in the favour of a war. But, the fact, that Israel and Saudi Arabia in the region are, secretly, pushing US to confront with Iran, continues to be the undeniable basic truth as both of them are looking forward to expanding their influence in the Middle East Region.

Although, US and Iran have had a bitter history of diplomatic ties, but, no sooner Donald Trump took over, he decisively started injecting the undying tartness in the relations. Trump went on to stretch that lacuna to the extent that he even tagged Iran’s most elite military force Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist group. The lethal sanctions inflicted by US on Iranian economy have begun to bite the country in several ways, ranging from food inflation to the rising clamour in Iranian domestic politics. In order to squeeze out its exports, US is lobbying, persuading and, even, intimidating other countries against doing business with Iran, and, most importantly, against buying its oil.

In the backdrop of such rowdy acts of whimsicality by US, which the whole world is witnessing today, several global economies are set to suffer viciously. And, as far as India is concerned, sadly, it hasn’t escaped unhurt. India has, though unofficially, declared that it will stop purchasing Iranian oil by not doing so since past one month. Nevertheless, US has withdrawn from Iran deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), interestingly enough,  European Union seems reluctant to let the deal die in vain. But, another significant fact remains tall that the European Union will, inevitably, find it hard to effect a real break with the US in the Middle East. However, the lacuna between the strategic perceptions of US and EU has come to the fore in the open world. Where on one side the US has almost grounded all the hopes of resurgence of the said deal, and on the other, the European Union is groping for a spark to allow it to take off again.

Apparently, the Middle East region, for the moment, has become the centrepiece of grave tensions and seems standing on extremely fragile ground. Wherein even a single unnecessary and false move may shove the entire region into the volcano of war, and, at the same time, bring the global economy to its doomsdays. Although, the Middle East region is not new to the war. The region, by itself, has been a witness to a string of grim wars, happened during the course of time here. If the history of the region is anything to go by, the war that looms so large over the region— if it happens—will not come as a surprise.

With Iran’s patience like a tinder box, waiting to explode anytime soon, Trump’s strategy of ratcheting up pressure on Iran seems egregiously internecine. With his austere and punitive policies and without holding a productive dialogue with Iran, achieving peace in the region is as difficult as it gets.

The ramifications of war—If it happens — will certainly not be limited to the Middle East Region, rather the world will bear the brunt of it for decades.

A Conditional Visa

US President Donald Trump’s obsession against the inflow of foreign immigrants in the US seems unable to find a stopover. As in his latest whimsical move, Trump has, by replacing ‘Green Card’, launched a new visa called ‘Build America Visa’.  

Even in his humongous electioneering before being elected to the US top job, Donald Trump used a particular word ‘Immigrants’ in a taunting manner numerous times. At that time, US intelligentsia took his strenuous views on foreign immigrants as a pinch of salt when he blamed the immigrants living in the US, for usurping the jobs that were actually meant for native Americans. Even the US media, that embraced a tough stance against Trump during his election campaigning for his aggressive and divisive statements, did not heed and actually played down (in case it heeded) his conspicuously hate-mongering rhetoric against the immigrants.

After coming to power, Donald Trump commenced to roll out his poll promises in tandem. To tackle the rising situation of illegal migrants, he beefed up the security at the US-Mexico border, and, as also promised during poll campaign, he pitched for his idea of constructing a wide wall across the border with Mexico, for which he even went on to declare a national emergency to accumulate the funds to build his dream wall. It is worth mentioning that Trump's idea of building the border wall— that will cost US exchequer about $60 billion— hit another wall of the Democrats in the US Congress, who outrightly rejected his request to grant him an initial fund of about $6 billion to start charting out the plan for it.

Trump’s obsession to control the inflow of foreigners in the US is not restricted just to illegal migrants. In a bid to put a limit on immigrants coming to the US, Trump had also toughened up the H1B Visa norms last year. The immigrants from across the world have strongly contributed to the US economy is a fact, which is not far from global basic instinct.

Although, by introducing Build America Visa, Trump has, perhaps, displayed both wit and poise and laid out a trap for his political opponents in the US to fall into. As ironically, the Democrats in the US looks to be stuck between the devil and a deep sea. Hailing Trump for his new idea may help him in next year’s Presidential Elections. And, contrary to this, criticizing him for his merit-based visa scheme may, certainly, turn the US voters against the Democrats. Hence, turning a blind eye on this idea would, probably, be the best idea for them.

Significantly, while rationalising his new visa plan, Trump assertively stressed upon the merit-based US visa system. Trump said that only 12 per cent foreigners get the visa on Merit basis and his new scheme is intended at scaling up that percentage to 57%. The current visa system in the US favours those who have their family member(s) living there. And, that’s what, as the matter of fact, President Donald Trump is aiming to stamp out. He wants US immigration system to favour those with high skills, higher educational degree, professional qualification, either having a job offer from the US or in a condition to offer jobs there, and, most importantly, must be an English speaker. And, in addition to all these selective requirements, the candidate must pass a civics test.

Trump went on to justify the new visa, saying that he doesn’t want to make America the hotbed of unskilled cheap workers, instead, he wants qualified skilled workers to come and contribute in strengthening the US economy. Trump’s new visa idea is believed to be coined by his son-in-law Jared Kushner, clearly with an ardent ideology prevailing in the US system against the family members of Green Card holders, who are being seen as a burden on USA’s social security.

On the face of it, Trump’s new visa scheme has nothing to sneeze at. As far as Indians are concerned, the new policy is being considered as a panacea to those highly educated people and students whose visa application is long-standing due to no family contact in the USA, and hence, their patience to secure a visa are wearing thin. But, like all other plans and policies of US President, the devil is in the detail.

There is no predicting, if Trump’s new rules, like qualification, test and all, turn out to be a pretext of denying visa to foreign citizens. Denying visa to the family members of professional Indians working there will probably and terribly influence their work. If a working professional in the US is allowed to live with his spouse or parents, he can unworryingly concentrate on his work. Now that, even if a professional, by fulfilling tough US visa requirements, succeeds to secure a visa and reaches there, he will, inevitably, be bound to consume most of his energy and time in his daily routine and upkeep. In this backdrop, his productivity may invite several questions.  

Better late than never

In what could be seen as a move in the right direction at the time of growing inhumanity with minors, especially girl children, the Haryana  government has cleared the way for a capital punishment for raping a girl child. Last week, the Haryana assembly unanimously passed the bill against the brutalization of minors in the state. 

Though,  the recent step appears to be in line with better late than never, as it should have been taken earlier provided the steep rise in the rape cases in the state. The latest law in Haryana will pave the way for a capital punishment to the convict for raping a girl child with 12 years of age or less. There is also the provision of minimum two years and maximum seven years of imprisonment for molesting or stalking the minors with less than twelve years of age. 

The imprisonment, in special cases, is expandable up to fourteen years or life imprisonment. Haryana, now, has become the third state having such a stern law for rape cases, following Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

The central bank with no rights

In the backdrop of high-profile Punjab National Bank Fraud, Reserve Bank of India has become not less than a scapegoat, facing flak from almost every section of the society. After receiving atrocious condemnation, RBI Governor Urjit Patel, finally, broke his mystifying silence and his first statement in the aftermath of the fraud was startling.

RBI Governor publicly described that how RBI has been emasculated and does not enjoy the rights to stop any banking fraud resulting into such high level banking loots. Urjit Patel’s statement points towards a grave situation of Indian Banking System. It points out the fact that how government in the name of bank reform is stripping central bank off its rights and enslaving commercial banks. With this, disagreements between the Government and central bank have come to the fore.

Precisely, RBI is intending to bring about the significant reforms and put some restrictions on the banks as it has done by putting an end to issue of LoUs by the Indian banks- though it will hurt other sincere and honest business men-but RBI’s style of reforms may not fit in the shoes of government. 

A much-needed step to stamp out Tuberculosis

The Government of India’s predominant mission to eradicate Tuberculosis (TB) from India by 2025 is a welcome step. If implemented to the ground level, it may bring about a positive change-in terms of healthcare - to the Indian Society. With an eye to bring back thousands of people from the death's jaws every year, though after years- long subterfuge, Govt. has shown some positive attitude to do away this epidemic from the society.

To weed out the prevalent disease from its roots, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has stressed upon the strategic planning, and has tried to get the states as well on the deck with a view to ensure effective implementation of the mission.  This is unfortunate that even after the seventy years of independence our country is clutched in the jaws of a rampant disease like Tuberculosis. Though, PM Modi conceded that all the measures taken to erase the epidemic from the society so far went in the vain.

However, the policy failure reflects the apparent vacuums in our administration, and that remains flopped in providing access of health care services to common citizens. In this backdrop, the success of the mission to deracinate Tuberculosis remains encircled with the significant question marks.

An attack on dignity

The recent successive attacks on statues of great personalities in tandem across the country are not inglorious and unfortunate, but also do a great disservice to India’s goodwill as a democratic country on the global platform. The Prime Minister Narendra Modi, rightly, seized the moment and censured the audacious acts and also warned of punitive actions against the culprits. 

PM’s counteraction to the incident was followed by home ministry’s directives to the states, urging them to take punitive action against the attackers, intended to further pre-empt recurring such unacceptable deeds. The government’s stance on the entire episode appears to be obvious and thus, understandable.

A Legitimate Demand

Started a week ago, the students’ protest against the alleged leak of question paper of Staff Selection Commission that is SSC’s competitive exam, has now taken a political turn. Thousands of students from across the country are staging a mammoth protest, opposite to Staff selection Commission office in Delhi, alleging that question paper was leaked on social media before the exam.

Though, the SSC’s chairman, said, he has not received any strong evidence, pertaining to the alleged leak and also asked protestors to furnish the proofs establishing the leak so as to initiate the probe. But, Delhi’s chief Minister and congress leaders’ call for a CBI probe of the matter, gave the incident a political shape.

Thus, Delhi BJP Chief entered the furor and tried resolving the issue by holding talks with Union Home Minister and SSC chairman, but, students remained persistent and signaled for continuing the outcry until they are shown a written order of CBI probe about the leak. 

An unfavorable siege

A government’s congenial relations with its administration reflects its positive attitude, propensity to shape an ideal work culture and to maintain constancy in work proceedings. But, the recent development in Delhi is unfortunate and does not befit a democratic structure. It is significant that Delhi chief secretary Ansh Prakash, during a meeting at Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s residence, was allegedly assaulted by AAP leaders.

The unfavorable siege between the Delhi government and bureaucrats after the incident brought the entire government system to a dogmatic halt. Despite their demands of apologies and legal actions, senior officers attended a meeting of Delhi cabinet and bureaucrats in the last week of February. But, undoubtedly the impasse is intact, so far. Because, this was for the first time, perhaps, the cabinet meeting of a state government was held under the security circle.

Indeed, Chief Secretary Ansh Prakash, coupled with Delhi Home Secretary Manoj Parida and Finance Secretary SN Sahay,  was given a security cover of more than a dozen cops, when he arrived at a meeting to discuss Delhi’s budget format for next fiscal year. 

Pakistan's 'NaPak' acts

Obligated by its profane objectives, our cumbersome neighbor Pakistan is going all out to pump in a spate of its domesticated terrorists into Kashmir, The chief commander of Indian Army confirmed. Pakistan exported terrorists –aided by Pakistan army and Intelligence agency ISI-have been attempting to intrude into the Indian side and targeting civil locations.

Undoubtedly, Indian soldiers are fighting tooth and nail to foil their bid to sneak into Indian border, but still sometimes intruders, making hay while the sun shines, succeed in their endeavor. The ambush on army camps at Uri, Pathankot and Sunjwan, getting the terrorists freed by attacking a hospital in Srinagar and ambuscades on police stations & many residential areas are some of the cowardly attacks carried out by Pakistan exported fear-mongers.

According to Intelligence, a string of Pakistan terrorists is plotting to intrude through the Indian border. The recent rise in unprovoked ceasefire violation by Pakistan, substantiate the fact that the Pakistan’s plans make terrorists pass through the border are in full swing.

The right move!

There is an old saying that goes like “better late than never”, and this perfectly fits the NDA govt’s most recent step towards the institution of special courts to speed up the hearing process of criminal cases against the tainted MLAs and MPs-- though it should’ve been taken much earlier. Significantly, the credit for the recent development does not go to the cognizance of government, but to the Supreme Court’s last year rap on the Modi government. Two of such special courts have been formed in Delhi, which are to start the process from 1 March.

A total of twelve such courts is to be instituted to facilitate the fast-track hearing process of the years-long cases against the tainted lagislators. Aiming to dispose each case within a year, these courts will operate as fast-track courts.

Despite the fact that the govt’s move to set up special courts followed the Supreme Court order; it is significant that the MPs and MLAs who’ve been found indulged in various criminal acts will no longer enjoy the immunity due to tedious judicial proceedings.

A pact that no longer act

Even after a ceasefire pact in 2003 between India and Pakistan, Indian troops, almost every day, has been struggling with the bullets and grenades coming from across the border, unmasking Pakistan’s feigning stand behind its claim of being a peaceful nation. The recent violations do not imply that the pact was an unproductive move, given the fact that the era after the pact witnessed the less exchange of fire than the era before the pact. But, the unprovoked violation of ceasefire from Pakistan in the past few years and heavy shelling on the border villages, that left hundreds of innocent people died unwarrantable, has put all the ceasefire pacts and hopes to rekindle the relationships between the two nations on the shelf.

The relations of the two nations, since partition, has witnessed a spate of drastic turns,  discontents and plots, often, took the shape of wars and resulted into heavy physical and economic loss bore by both the nations, consequently. With this unfortunate history, the sour relationship can’t be described as a surprise. What more piercing is that how could a nation, to pump in the terrorists in another, resort to firing and shelling?

It’s been exposed umpteen times that how Pakistani troops have been, irrelevantly, opening fire at Indian posts and villages, adjacent to the border. But, practically the firing is not irrelevant as it has the relevance to helping out the terrorists and intruders infiltrating into Indian borders.

Dalveer Bhandari