Whether You Like It or Not

"You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I'm one of the lucky ones. People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!” —the words from the speech passionately delivered at the UN Climate Action Summit 2019 by a 16-year-old Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg must have shaken the global community out of its deep stupor. The leaders of the so-called flourishing countries, who have turned a blind eye to the deteriorating climate situation with the passing of time, must have paid attention to the intensely brewing voice against their perilous policies towards the environment that they often tried to trample upon.

It defies comprehension that despite enough reports of an ensuing climate change havoc, the global leaders are busy building castles in the air for the eternal economic growth, instead of taking concrete measures towards mitigating the tragic effects of climate change. It is immensely unfortunate that the growing climate concerns of the global community are confined to the dialogues, hollow narratives and unfulfilled & abandoned goals set at the several International Climate Forums. 

As the years roll by, the ecosystem is, gradually and conspicuously, being impoverished, and this fact is corroborated by the ravaging natural havocs occurring and recurring across the globe in the form of constant cyclones and other disasters and, for that matter, the melting glaciers. 

Now, the question that arises out of the whole picture is that will just the high-toned dialogues and inspiring speeches about conserving the environment by global leaders at the International Forums suffice? The simple and precise answer is ‘NO’. We cannot let our successors bear the brunt of our disservice to the ecosystem and we must give a break to our ‘fairy tales of eternal economic growth’ and spare a thought for our environment. However, that is a very big ‘but’.   

Provided such callous attitude towards the severe environmental problems like climate change, a large number of young climate activists have upped the ante against climate change atheists at the international forums, with the latest being the UN Climate Action Summit 2019. The Global Environmental Conservation Icon, Greta Thunberg rallied a massive protest with fifteen other young activists from 12 different countries, joining her to file a complaint in the United Nations against 5 countries for not walking their talk and adopting indifferent stance towards climate change. 

Unsurprisingly, the complaint embodies a clutch of allegations of a conspicuous child rights violation by these 5 countries by turning a blind eye to the grave environmental issues like climate change. Probably, this revolution appears to be the first of its kind where the young environmental activists led by Greta Thunberg articulated the world in a precise manner that tampering with the ecosystem today will cost an arm and a leg to tomorrow's generation and shed light upon the real picture of the ensuing climate crisis.

Despite the environmentalists expressing their deep concerns over gradual climate warming, and seamlessly, warning about the growing carbon emissions by the world’s leading economies, the Global Climate Institutions seem reluctant to recognise the symptoms, let alone treating the malaise.

Perhaps that indifferent attitude of the world leaders compelled the millions of young climate activists to lead a protest to make themselves heard and that, significantly, led to the organisation of Global Climate Summit 2019. Wrapped in the clouds of environmental uncertainties, the world witnessed another silver lining in those clouds in UN Climate Summit with the formation of new group pioneered by India and Sweden, aiming to transform large Greenhouse Gas emitting industries into the low-carbon emitter. 

Taking into account the international community’s decades-old impotence in figuring out an infallible method to put a significant end to climate change, the daunting challenge that stares at this newly-formed group is, whether it would be capable enough to make a big difference? Moreover, beyond this, isn’t the ongoing and upcoming environmental crisis raise questions on the competence of the existing Global Forums for Climate Change that whether they themselves are capable enough to calm the intensely growing concerns of our younger generations? 

No matter the international community takes cognizance of this or not, the revolution has been set off, the voices are growing more energetic, and young passion has been fuelled and that reflects in her vehement speech, “You are failing us. But young people are starting to understand your betrayal … We will not let you get away with this … The world is waking up. And change is coming, whether you like it or not.”

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The Undone Deal

US President Donald Trump is, on the world stage, seen as an unpredictable leader and known for his intransigence that reflects in his dogmatic decisions. Usually, it takes only a single tweet for him to create lasting chaos in the global arena, be it a twitter war with North Korean leader Kim Jon Un or withdrawal from several crucial pacts like Paris Climate Agreement, JCPOA, to name a few. Trump’s out-of-the-blue and, sometimes, whimsical decisions, often, catch the global community off guard and leave them scratching their head.

The US President’s move to departure from Afghanistan peace deal came as the latest in the series when Trump took everyone by surprise. President Trump took US out from a yet-to-be-formed peace deal with Afghan-Taliban, leaving Afghanistan and, indeed, the whole region hanging in the balance. Now, the Taliban is out on a bombing spree, killing hundreds of people in Afghanistan.

The nearer Afghanistan’s Presidential elections are approaching, the higher Taliban’s scale of violence is clocking, which appears to terrify Afghan cities with suicide bombings like anything, and creating the fear & trembling without which not even a single day passes by.

The bombardments targeted at Schools, Hospitals, Government establishments, Police and Military Camps and even American Embassy, points to Taliban’s preparation scale that sends out a message loud and clear that it is all set to create mayhem in the already war-ravaged Afghanistan. But, for the US when its own embassy is targeted, more than anything else it's a matter of prestige. The US military too is giving an equal and aggressive response. A few days ago, a US military drone attack claimed 20 innocent Afghan lives.

When bulls fight, crops suffer. Here, the sufferers are the innocent people of Afghanistan, being sandwiched between the US and Taliban’s decade-old undying war of domination. After the recent so-called peace deal with US ended up in vain, Taliban is now out, exploding its frustration on common Afghan people and leaving Aghan streets and homes teeming with crises, born out of human injuries, loss and deaths.

In this backdrop, the question facing Afghanistan and, perhaps, the whole region is how Afghanistan’s establishment is to conduct the fair elections which will be far from the unscrupulous meddling of Taliban. Expressing his sorrowful concerns, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has stated that ''every Afghan citizen has the right to live in an atmosphere free of fear and violence.'' But, in true sense, even this international organisation does not have a panacea to this malaise.

The experts are of the view that if the US had not burned their bridges with Taliban and backed off from the soon-to-be-established deal, then Afghanistan could have breathed a little easier and it did not have to suffer what it is reeling through today. But, the killing of one US soldier upended the years-long negotiations, putting the final nail in the coffin to end the US-Taliban peace talks in vain, and US exited from the said peace negotiations allowing Afghanistan to become a hotbed of terror bombings.  

However, last year, Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani took a significant step by recognising Taliban as a political party and freeing up its militants held in incarceration. Meanwhile, the peace talks in Qatar went on, in which a gamut of issues was discussed that resulted in nothing. Against this backdrop, when the peace talks held in Moscow down the line, the former President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai was invited but Afghan Government was not included following Taliban’s stance that it will forge an agreement with America only if the elections in Afghanistan are suspended.

And, this is how the spirit of peace negotiations vanished somewhere in a tugging war of self-obsessed politics and intransigence. It is worth saying that the Taliban’s pig-headed attitude is among the major reasons which has turned Afghanistan into the battle-ground of today.

More than anything, the timely need for all the concerned stakeholders is to lend an ear to the common Afghanis and hear their painful cries and their grieving hearts which are begging for peace. In order to calm their sobbing hearts, the two main negotiators US and Taliban must come together, as it takes two to tango, and leave their political differences and vested interests apart.

Afghanistan Government too needs to put a brake to its celebrations triggered by the collapse of the peace deal with the Taliban. All concerned parties must sit together and introspect what actually have they achieved in 18 years of constant war, and for that matter how many more lives would it take for them to restore peace in the region, if at all.

A dream home in nature's lap

Wrapped in the clouds of life’s uncertainties, the human, his entire life, keeps longing for a silver lining in those clouds, and that is called ‘Peace’. Beyond just a word, Peace is the fulcrum of everything that the human is capable of achieving. I have no interest in Etymology, but am sure to some extent that the word peace would have been formed with a view to encompass the pristine beauty of nature. Hence, it is worth saying that the nature and peace are, undeniably, two inseparable sides of the same coin. 

A dream home embellished with an ingraining amalgamation of peace and nature, may probably be bristle with that phlegmatic sense, which one may look out for. Surrounded with pretty palm trees nestled with Verginia Creeper, the lawn will perfume the entire courtyard with its light fragrance. And, in that courtyard stands the handmade Bamboo Mudda table with two chairs, made with the same material as table, standing close enough so that one can relax on one chair with both his feet lying on the table in crossed shape. 

Now, a small and cozy drawing room with a big window, and on that window hangs the light-coloured curtains. The radiant sunlight pierces through those curtains and scatters into the entire room. The room gets filled up with the abundant sunshine which illuminates every nook of the drawing room as if it no longer needs the electricity. From the same window, you can hear the sweet melodies of bird-chirping which submerges you into a different world whence you never want to return. 

At dawn, when you come out of the house, the fresh and chilly air blows from directly in front and touches your skin, apparently giving your flesh that soothing natural spa, calming your body like anything. After the natural spa of fresh and soothing air, when you move into the house the noise of book (lying on the table near the window) pages flipping itself due to the strong wind blowing through the window, inviting you to spend some time sitting on the edge of the window and begin your day with reading at least four to five pages of that book. And this is how I'm gonna organise my dream home.

A Diplomatic Turning Point

In what could be seen as a major policy shift of its Diplomacy, India has voted in favour of Israel in the UN General Assembly voting, aimed at according an observer status to ‘Shahed’ in UN’s Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC). Significantly, this is the first time when India has voted in favour of Israel when it comes to Israel-Palestine confrontation in UN, and the vote, categorically, went against Palestine, giving a blow to its ambitions of full-fledged membership in the United Nations. The latest move turns out to be a conspicuous diplomatic shift of India.

Shahed is a group which Palestine recognises as a Human Rights organisation, whereas Israel has tagged it as a Hezbollah linked terrorist group.

Over the past decades, India, by keeping all its good relations with Israel aside, has gone all out to, partially, support Palestine in the United Nations. India’s stand with Palestine was beyond a verbal one as it became one of the first countries in 1988 which recognized Palestine as a state. That followed India’s recognition of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) in 1974. Apparently, the sole reason behind India's full-fledged and unconditional support to Palestine over the past decades was an economic one.

A large number of Indians are employed in separate gulf countries whereby India gets its bigger chunk of remittance (in billions) from the region, especially Saudi Arabia, a dominant player in the Gulf region. In addition, India also gets most of its crude oil needs fulfilled from the Middle-East. In this backdrop, flying in the face of Palestine and its overwhelming supporter, the Gulf region could have, undoubtedly, costed India an arm and a leg.

Now that, since the diplomatic tables are turning and the shrill rivalry between Israel and the leader of the Gulf region Saudi Arabia is melting steadily, let by the technological trade between the two regional powers, India, though gradually, is coming out of its diplomatic compulsion to support Palestine anyway. Iran as a common enemy also turns out to be a bete noire player in the region.

Despite the fact that Palestine has nothing to offer that India can benefit from and Israel has almost everything to help it grow tremendously faster, ranging from technology to intelligence, the prima facie cause of India kept supporting Palestine hitherto was to maintain its friendly relations with the Gulf countries.   

Needless to say that Israel is endowed with impressive cutting-edge technology in the fields of agriculture, irrigation, water conservation, etc. apart from its immense intelligence network that India can unequivocally benefit from. In addition to trade aspects, it is worth mentioning that in India whenever the Bharatiya Janata Party comes to power, India sees its relations with Israel catapulted to new heights. During Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government, India witnessed a steep rise in India-Israel trade to $2.1 billion in 2004 from $675 million in 1998. And, after remaining passive during UPA years, the trade has doubled to $4.6 billion per annum over the past five years. However, it has an estimated potential of more than $10 billion if Israel-offered free trade agreement is signed by both countries.

Beyond trade and political establishments, another facet pushes India-Israel relations appears to be the growing sympathy and affection of Indians for Israel. Interestingly, the Foreign Ministry of Israel conducted a survey to figure out about the different countries having sympathy for Israel, only to see that 58 per cent of Indians have great sympathy for Israel.

Now that even as various outlooks from geopolitical to trade and from the political establishment to sentimental affections, India’s cordial relations with Israel has no wall in its way to hit. In this backdrop, India’s changing diplomacy in terms of Israel and Palestine is a welcome move by all means.

The Game of Trades

As the trade deal talks between US and China go out of order, the global spotlight has, once again, been trained on the possibly inescapable trade war between the two economic giants—US and China, who account to almost about 40 per cent of world’s GDP. The trade war between the two countries gained a drastic momentum when US President Donald Trump announced increased import tariffs of 25 per cent on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, blaming reluctance of China towards forging a balanced trade deal.

Interestingly, Sir Isaac Newton, in his third law of motion, said, “every action has an equal and opposite reaction.” So, the series of foisting tariffs did not end up with US tariffs on Chinese goods. Rather it invited retaliatory tariffs with China imposing increased tariffs on $60 billion worth of US imports. As two are refusing to take one-step back, precisely both the countries are handling it as the matter of prestige.

In the US, Presidential elections are due in next year. For Donald Trump, a lot is on stake. Winning over China and nailing a balanced trade deal with it can help him peerlessly in the next Presidential elections. Unlike, for China, though it may not be a matter of elections but certainly a matter of its global prestige. But, their matter of prestige is, indeed, a pain in the neck for the rest of the world.

The latest statements coming from President Trump are, conspicuously, pointing towards an ensuing formidable situation in terms of global trade. It is worth mentioning that the trade battle between the two countries set off last year when Trump inflicted Chinese steel and aluminium imports with heavy tariffs, inviting quick and retaliatory tariffs from China as well. Henceforth, the trade situations became grave and grave with each passing day, allowing counter statements from both sides and, thereon perhaps, lingers the noose of an unwanted trade war situation over the world economy.

Trump appears to, assertively, rationalize his tariffs by putting forward the concerns of American businessmen, saying the US is, painfully, bearing a yearly loss of a whopping $375 billion owing to Chinese imports, hence China must compensate that loss. And, to circumvent the current daunting trade situations, China must either initiate and show conciliatory overture by removing heavy duties from US imports or expect further tariffs on its goods being exported to US.

In this crux for global trade, India enjoys no exception. In essence, the sparks emanating from the trade battle between the two economic giant may hurt Indian interests too— in one way or another. The two sides failing to figure out a concrete solution to the ongoing perturbing logjam may cause a significant rise of interest rates in the USA, followed by the outflow of institutional investors from India, leaving behind a hobbled share market.

If those predicaments are anything to go by, the most ardent allies of USA, especially European Union, may follow the same stance of conservatism in the days to come, as the US seems to tread on today. And, if the EU embarks to tread on the same trajectory, Indian exports to Europe may suffer adversely. In addition, a global recession can be the eventual outcome if these trade deadlocks remain persistent any longer, resulting in high crude oil prices, and thus, stoking higher inflation.

Although, in order to cease a few favourable opportunities in the persisting trade impasse, India handed China a list of about 380 products that China can import from India, but China, if it does, will probably import only those products which it may not get from the USA such as medicines, agro products like Soyabean.

Trump also tried to weigh India in the same scale as he assesses China, by foisting heavy import tariffs on Indian steel and aluminium, an unnecessary move that saw an equal, opposite and, at the same time, an appropriate response from India.

As the ongoing US-China trade scenarios are taking a drastic turn with each passing day and bode ill for near future trade prospects, India, in this backdrop, must buckle down and should not delay in taking some immediate and infallible steps to take it all in its stride.

The Dark Clouds of War

Perhaps, the dark clouds have started gathering over the Gulf region as each passing day unfolds new formidable developments. The world superpower USA and a regional but major power Iran seem to be on the brink of ‘unwillingly escapable’ confrontation. In the wake of this daunting global uncertainty, none of the two appears to be willing to take a step back to avert this dogged predicament.

The obvious cause of ongoing instability can be traced back to the 2015’s Trump's reprehensible decision of pulling out of Iran Nuclear Deal sealed by his predecessor Barack Obama. Henceforth, both the countries have unsurprisingly remained adamant towards a new deal where on one side, Trump wants a new deal with more stringent restrictions, on the other side, Tehran wants Donald Trump to show some respect towards the existing one (JCPOA). And significantly, that is the actual bone of contention behind the baffled and fragile relations between the two countries.

May 2019 has seen the most ups and downs in the long series of rising middle east tensions, with the latest being the deployment of 1500 extra troops to the region by US President. Trump, recently, even took it to Twitter to intimidate Iran of deadly consequences that may follow Iran’s unrequired action against US and its allies. The sharp repercussion of Trump followed the attack on four oil tankers at the coast of UAE, publicly claimed by Iran backed rebels of Yemen. Another regional power Saudi Arabia, too, said that it is not in the favour of a war. But, the fact, that Israel and Saudi Arabia in the region are, secretly, pushing US to confront with Iran, continues to be the undeniable basic truth as both of them are looking forward to expanding their influence in the Middle East Region.

Although, US and Iran have had a bitter history of diplomatic ties, but, no sooner Donald Trump took over, he decisively started injecting the undying tartness in the relations. Trump went on to stretch that lacuna to the extent that he even tagged Iran’s most elite military force Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist group. The lethal sanctions inflicted by US on Iranian economy have begun to bite the country in several ways, ranging from food inflation to the rising clamour in Iranian domestic politics. In order to squeeze out its exports, US is lobbying, persuading and, even, intimidating other countries against doing business with Iran, and, most importantly, against buying its oil.

In the backdrop of such rowdy acts of whimsicality by US, which the whole world is witnessing today, several global economies are set to suffer viciously. And, as far as India is concerned, sadly, it hasn’t escaped unhurt. India has, though unofficially, declared that it will stop purchasing Iranian oil by not doing so since past one month. Nevertheless, US has withdrawn from Iran deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), interestingly enough,  European Union seems reluctant to let the deal die in vain. But, another significant fact remains tall that the European Union will, inevitably, find it hard to effect a real break with the US in the Middle East. However, the lacuna between the strategic perceptions of US and EU has come to the fore in the open world. Where on one side the US has almost grounded all the hopes of resurgence of the said deal, and on the other, the European Union is groping for a spark to allow it to take off again.

Apparently, the Middle East region, for the moment, has become the centrepiece of grave tensions and seems standing on extremely fragile ground. Wherein even a single unnecessary and false move may shove the entire region into the volcano of war, and, at the same time, bring the global economy to its doomsdays. Although, the Middle East region is not new to the war. The region, by itself, has been a witness to a string of grim wars, happened during the course of time here. If the history of the region is anything to go by, the war that looms so large over the region— if it happens—will not come as a surprise.

With Iran’s patience like a tinder box, waiting to explode anytime soon, Trump’s strategy of ratcheting up pressure on Iran seems egregiously internecine. With his austere and punitive policies and without holding a productive dialogue with Iran, achieving peace in the region is as difficult as it gets.

The ramifications of war—If it happens — will certainly not be limited to the Middle East Region, rather the world will bear the brunt of it for decades.

A Conditional Visa

US President Donald Trump’s obsession against the inflow of foreign immigrants in the US seems unable to find a stopover. As in his latest whimsical move, Trump has, by replacing ‘Green Card’, launched a new visa called ‘Build America Visa’.  

Even in his humongous electioneering before being elected to the US top job, Donald Trump used a particular word ‘Immigrants’ in a taunting manner numerous times. At that time, US intelligentsia took his strenuous views on foreign immigrants as a pinch of salt when he blamed the immigrants living in the US, for usurping the jobs that were actually meant for native Americans. Even the US media, that embraced a tough stance against Trump during his election campaigning for his aggressive and divisive statements, did not heed and actually played down (in case it heeded) his conspicuously hate-mongering rhetoric against the immigrants.

After coming to power, Donald Trump commenced to roll out his poll promises in tandem. To tackle the rising situation of illegal migrants, he beefed up the security at the US-Mexico border, and, as also promised during poll campaign, he pitched for his idea of constructing a wide wall across the border with Mexico, for which he even went on to declare a national emergency to accumulate the funds to build his dream wall. It is worth mentioning that Trump's idea of building the border wall— that will cost US exchequer about $60 billion— hit another wall of the Democrats in the US Congress, who outrightly rejected his request to grant him an initial fund of about $6 billion to start charting out the plan for it.

Trump’s obsession to control the inflow of foreigners in the US is not restricted just to illegal migrants. In a bid to put a limit on immigrants coming to the US, Trump had also toughened up the H1B Visa norms last year. The immigrants from across the world have strongly contributed to the US economy is a fact, which is not far from global basic instinct.

Although, by introducing Build America Visa, Trump has, perhaps, displayed both wit and poise and laid out a trap for his political opponents in the US to fall into. As ironically, the Democrats in the US looks to be stuck between the devil and a deep sea. Hailing Trump for his new idea may help him in next year’s Presidential Elections. And, contrary to this, criticizing him for his merit-based visa scheme may, certainly, turn the US voters against the Democrats. Hence, turning a blind eye on this idea would, probably, be the best idea for them.

Significantly, while rationalising his new visa plan, Trump assertively stressed upon the merit-based US visa system. Trump said that only 12 per cent foreigners get the visa on Merit basis and his new scheme is intended at scaling up that percentage to 57%. The current visa system in the US favours those who have their family member(s) living there. And, that’s what, as the matter of fact, President Donald Trump is aiming to stamp out. He wants US immigration system to favour those with high skills, higher educational degree, professional qualification, either having a job offer from the US or in a condition to offer jobs there, and, most importantly, must be an English speaker. And, in addition to all these selective requirements, the candidate must pass a civics test.

Trump went on to justify the new visa, saying that he doesn’t want to make America the hotbed of unskilled cheap workers, instead, he wants qualified skilled workers to come and contribute in strengthening the US economy. Trump’s new visa idea is believed to be coined by his son-in-law Jared Kushner, clearly with an ardent ideology prevailing in the US system against the family members of Green Card holders, who are being seen as a burden on USA’s social security.

On the face of it, Trump’s new visa scheme has nothing to sneeze at. As far as Indians are concerned, the new policy is being considered as a panacea to those highly educated people and students whose visa application is long-standing due to no family contact in the USA, and hence, their patience to secure a visa are wearing thin. But, like all other plans and policies of US President, the devil is in the detail.

There is no predicting, if Trump’s new rules, like qualification, test and all, turn out to be a pretext of denying visa to foreign citizens. Denying visa to the family members of professional Indians working there will probably and terribly influence their work. If a working professional in the US is allowed to live with his spouse or parents, he can unworryingly concentrate on his work. Now that, even if a professional, by fulfilling tough US visa requirements, succeeds to secure a visa and reaches there, he will, inevitably, be bound to consume most of his energy and time in his daily routine and upkeep. In this backdrop, his productivity may invite several questions.